Roma Basin Musavirligi 27 Novembre 2013
of the Republic of Turkey e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org homepage: www.ambasciataditurchia.it 27 novembre 2013 FROM NOW ON... IRAN, TURKEY, CHINA AND BEYOND...
STAR - 27/11/2013
Cemil Ertem This week, global stock markets are not seeking their ways in accordance with the Federal Reserve (FED) or news and data coming from Europe. Everyone has faced towards the East. Even the European Central Bank (ECB) has come to a dead end. The more the ECB strives to bring pro-growth policies forward in order to minimize the recession risk in the Euro zone, the more strength Euro gains. This also is a deadlock since strong Euro is the main reason which draws down the European export. However, this great deadlock of the Europe does not have an impact on the markets nowadays. Tehran is the main center which shapes the markets and this is not a temporary situation. A deep deal The deal made with Iran in Geneva has deep meanings without a doubt. No one expected to see a sharp fall in oil prices right after the deal. On the other hand, we can see a notable fall in oil prices in spot rates of Brent oil when we examine forward contracts. However, I would like to assure you that what really matters out of this deal can neither be explained with oil prices not with gas prices. Iran state tradition is known to take some quick and crucial decisions to shape and reorient the process during such historic transition periods. Rafsanjani thereby implies this process as a very crucial step towards normalization of the relations with the West after the Iranian Revolution and states that the final outcome will be reached in a year or so. Similarly, American Foreign Minister John Kerry notes that this deal is just a beginning and many more is yet to come. Fierce oppositions and actions targeting to undermine the process both from Iran and from such countries as Israel and Saudi Arabia are of course expected. However, none of these actions shall be strong enough to halt the process. Daze caused by Iran's step The historic step taken by Iran has, of course, not been welcome by some "circles" in Turkey. We can say that Iran has set off a new path considering its interior dynamics just like China did which resembles the path on which Turkey has been advancing for the last ten years. Iranian oligarchy has made the same mistakes that the Soviets once did up to now; that is, Iran has used its limited resources in conventional and nuclear arming and closed its doors to outer world. The main reason of this situation is charitable trusts called Bonyad which are owned by Iranian stated elites and which plays a significant role in Iranian economy. Moreover, when we add the economic network controlled by the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution onto the big picture, we can say that Iranian economy is not an open or competitive economy even if the embargo totally lifts. So, what does all that mean? Iranian economy has been under the control of the above mentioned two networks until now. The network run by the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution has been more radical and introverted. Now, their control on this network is fading and the party which is more "moderate" and which is willing to gradually open Iran's door to the outer world has gained power on this network. Regional cooperations are about to come! Asian and Southern countries which have different social and historic structures have been undergoing consecutive important transitions and shaping global economy and politics. This situation cuts down the differences of development levels between the East and the West and creates possibilities for regional integration and new economic policies. This development will create new regional cooperations and free trade agreements after some time. Who can say now that there will be no free trade agreements between Turkey, Iraq and Iran? The big geography called Eurasia is on the verge of the biggest economic and political integration today and the key countries of this integration are Turkey, Iran, Russia, China and the South Korea. Peace processes All these countries mentioned above are trying to put an end to the conflicts which have lasted during the 20th century via peace processes. These peace processes initiated in 90s are important dynamics which are transforming nation states into democratic public structures. All the dominant nation state models which are based on ethnical discrimination and pressure from Ireland to South Africa and Latin America have transformed or are about to transform. In a short period, more than a hundred peace processes have occurred and oppressive nationalist ideologies have been torn apart. In this regard, the deal made with Iran is no different than the democratic steps taken by China and Turkey, which was initiated by the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
THE NEW MIDDLE EASTERN EQUATION
SABAH - 27/11/2013
Tulu Gümüþtekin There have been significant changes on international scale within a week’s time. The negotiations between Iran and the permanent members of United Nations Security Council were concluded with an agreement. On the other hand, the Ukrainian President has declined to sign a partnership agreement with the EU partly as a result of Putin’s pressure. Behind these changes, we have seen the two actors of the Cold War era that we are familiar with: USA and Russia. As a matter of fact, USA wished to start off a new era and a new strategic initiative together with President Obama. Even the closest allies of the US such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Turkey and Israel have recently grasped that this initiative was kicked off long ago. The latest developments have also given important signals regarding the new policy of the greatest global power: USA. USA’s new approach refusing to use military power in the Middle East (this might be called the "Obama's Doctrine" in the future) can possibly create new and unexpected equilibrium in the region. Turkey’s resorting to its ‘soft power’ may even become much more important hence forth. EU, with the example of Ukraine, has realized that it has reached the limits of its ‘soft power’. It could break the Russian opposition neither in Georgia nor in Ukraine. In order to export the principles of EU and prosperity and stability of the Common Market to the region, it is clear that a ‘relay’ country such as Turkey is definitely needed… Turkey gets a considerable part of its power from conventional alliances such as EU and NATO. The relentless delay of Turkey's EU accession has cost instability and sectarian conflicts in the region. In the Middle East, Balkans and Caucasia where the US has been gradually stepping back; it has become evident that EU and Turkey have to take necessary steps in order to ensure peace and stability as soon as possible. We can create hope for peace only when we join forces; that is plain as a day.
WILL IRAN BE IN AND TURKEY OUT?
YENÝ ÞAFAK - 27/11/2013
Ýbrahim Karagül Turkey is obviously very happy with the nuclear deal between Iran and the West. End of the embargo, oil and natural gas projects and the regional consequences of Iran based conflict policies seem to be sufficient to make Turkey happy. But is that so? How will Iran-West reconciliation- if uninterrupted- influence Turkey’s position in the region and the international power map? That will be a main discussion topic in Turkey for many years. The East-West border is shifting from the straits to Turkey-Iran border. Can we say that the “strategic asset” definition used for Turkey will refer to Iran from now on? If the nuclear deal becomes permanent, we will. If Iran-West tension comes to an end, we might see Iran rising rapidly, becoming an East-West transit spot and a game setter in energy-related power relations. We might also see a liking for Iran in Europe. If things turn out as we expect, we will be talking about not Iran but an Iranian Empire with regional implications. The narrative of Turkey’s strategic significance will mostly give way to debates on Iran’s strategic significance. Energy resources alone will not account for the Iran initiative of the West which in a way bypassed Turkey. The West will seek to establish a partnership with Iran against the rising powers Russia and China. This is an attempt on a global scale related to the global power map. However, we should keep in mind that the same West has an interest in restraining Turkey to render it manageable again. We know that Turkey is raising serious concerns in many circles by “getting out of control”, acting on its own, renewing its collective memory, dismissing the US and Europe when necessary and acting like a global actor. I’m repeating, could rapprochement with Iran, beyond the nuclear crisis, have anything to do with restraining Turkey? This suggestion should not be dismissed in any way. Builders of the rapprochement are “allies” of Turkey and those allies have been loudly voicing their objections about Turkey for a long time. However, this rapprochement is leading to a new front. Besides the Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement, a new phenomenon has emerged in the region. Many regional countries will take quick steps towards becoming nuclear powers. I’m curious to know how the main actors of the dialogue will manage this process. More than ten countries from Algeria to the Gulf are taking steps towards becoming nuclear powers which is leading to a new threat, a confrontation, paving the way towards a global crisis. Iran deal has reinforced this tendency. I wrote many times in 2004 that regional tendencies indicated Turkey might after some time endorse initiatives for being a nuclear power. Maybe Turkey will react in this way to the new power map and then we will see how the “allies” cutting the deal with Iran will descend on Turkey. The relation of Iran deal with the aim of restraining Turkey should be questioned. A constructive, not a hostile, questioning is compulsory.
WHICH COUNTRIES DOES THE FOREIGN CAPITAL COME FROM?
DÜNYA - 27/11/2013
Tevfik Güngör According to the “International Investment Position” report published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, “Direct Investments” of foreigners to Turkey amounted to $181 billion as of 2012 year-end. $51 billion of these investments was in industrial sector whereas $100 billion was in services sector. $22 billion of the $51 billion investment in industrial sector consists of foreign currency flowing into the country for energy investments. $43 billion of the $100 billion foreign capital in services was bank and insurance capital. Inflow of foreign currency for investments in information and communication technologies stood at $28 billion. Within the total inflow of capital into industrial sector, $9 billion was invested in automotive industry, $5 billion in chemical industry, and $5 billion in electronics industry. A massive influx of money into Turkey from the oil-rich Gulf States is what you usually expect. However, contrary to such expectation, we do not see an inflow of foreign capital from the Gulf States. Which are the source countries for the $181 billion of total capital? · European countries have a share of $147 billion in this total direct investment of $181 billion. · 81 percent of the total foreign capital inflow to Turkey so far has been from Europe. · The share of Gulf States is less than 7 percent. Total inflow from the Gulf has been $12 billion so far. Amount of foreign capital inflow was $100 million from Qatar, $1.8 billion from Kuwait, $7.7 billion from the United Arab Emirates. · Direct investment from South Korea was $1.2 billion, $1.5 billion from Japan and $1 billion from Malaysia. · We expect a surge of investment from Azerbaijan. They acquired shares of Petkim through the privatization in Turkey. They have refinery projects. Yet, the total inflow of foreign currency stood at only $2.1 billion. · Germany alone made a total of $15,9 billion direct investments, United Kingdom $12.8 billion, France $8.8 billion and Italy $6.1 billion. Even Spanish investments reached $11.4 billion. It is clear that foreign capital inflow comes from the West and nowhere else. It will also continue to come from the West in the future. Although good relations with the Gulf States are essential, we should not expect an inflow of foreign currency from these countries. Neither the property investment nor the residence guarantee could enable a substantial foreign currency inflow from that direction.